Covid-19: Past, Present, and Future
Written by Ella Stillon Southard
With the recent distribution of the second booster shot to the nations most vulnerable populations, the United States continues to move in a positive direction towards neutralizing the Covid-19 pandemic. 66% of the population is fully vaccinated, case, death, and hospitalization trends are decreasing, and as of February 25th, mask usage is no longer necessary for indoor spaces due to a decrease in hospitalizations and an increase in widespread immunity through vaccination. Meanwhile in China, the country sustains a “zero-Covid” policy, where the lockdowns are strict, schools and businesses are closed, and travel is heavily limited. Although the nation has seen the biggest uptake in Omicron cases since the initial breakout in January of 2020, many experts are calling the measures extreme and disproportionate.
The Hill on April 4th put out an article headlined: “The brutality and absurdity of China’s zero-COVID policy,” where the writer(s) emphasized how the shutdown has infringed on humanitarian conditions, even while trying to protect the health of their citizens. The shutdown of ⅔ of the provinces in China, including the capitol Shanghai, has caused many citizens to go without any medical care at all, including radioactive cancer treatments, because the attention of medical staffs are diverted to conducting widespread testing for millions. The protocols are so strict that physical violence is sometimes initiated by officers, and entire buildings are shut down if one case is found. However, the intense tracking and isolating approach is proven effective; although cases are still soaring in China, when the country shut down previously, it was able to eradicate the presence of the virus almost completely, while the U.S has never come close to zero cases a day, and the death toll in the U.S sits highly at 3,000 for every million, while China’s is 3 per million.
Experts are also concerned with the economic effects of China’s recent shutdown. Because of China’s powerful manufacturing role in the global economy, if China cannot match the global demand of their exports because tens of millions of workers are not allowed to work, it affects the world prices, which then affects the domestic markets. According to Foreign Policy Magazine, the lockdown of specific provinces like Shenzhen and Shanghai in 2022 make this lockdown different from the initial 2020 one in Wuhan, where manufacturing is less prominent.
Maybe China’s strategy is how the U.S should’ve approached the public health issue the whole time. Or maybe China should cease its zero-Covid policy because of its need for labor to serve the world markets. Both are opinions – but what is objective is these two countries have strikingly different Covid-19 protocols in the present, yet both have similar hopes for a Covid-19 eradicated future. So, the question becomes, how did these respective nations come to such a different reality, and how will they, and the rest of the world, arrive at a unified state of health?
It’s difficult to critique the world for having such individual domestic Covid responses when not only are government structures and ideologies different, but the citizenries are too. According to a Voice of America article written at the very precipice of the pandemic in March of 2020, Asians have been wearing masks for medical and environmental reasons since the 1950s, especially after the 2002 SARS breakout in China. It is viewed as an action of solidarity and courtesy to wear a mask, even if someone is experiencing symptoms of a simple cold. So, when widespread mask usage was required to slow the spread of the virus, the citizens of China adapted much more easily than those of the U.S. Furthermore, even if this cultural standard hadn’t been in place in China, the Chinese people’s relationship with their government is very different from the U.S. The Western narrative of the Chinese government often promotes an authoritative view that allows for little freedom or human rights. Although there may be some truth to that narrative, it should also be known that 88% of Chinese people prefer their country’s government system, according to a University of California survey. Not only that, but the trust in their government rose from 84% in 2018 to 90% in 2020, while “Americans’ trust in the U.S. government ranged from 37 to 40 percent.” The trust in the Chinese government primarily springs from the nation order that is a product of a centralized government which is efficient in policymaking that improves the lives of the citizens, according to a decade long survey conducted by the Harvard Ash Center. Thus, if the citizens believe that their government can manage a ginormous economy, modern infrastructure, welfare, and healthcare, then they will be more likely to trust the government’s Covid-19 policy decisions.
Similarly, because less than one-quarter of American society trusts their government to make good policy making decisions, the domestic Covid-19 response is going to be received with a similar attitude – which it was. Masks and strict quarantine measures were never fully accepted as a national necessity to slow the spread because of the relationship between the U.S government and its people, therefore the U.S domestic response had to accommodate the limited lengths their citizens would go to.
The rationales above address how we got to the opposing Covid conditions in the present, but where the world is looking, is to the post-Covid future. The term ‘post-Covid future’ presumily involves many factors, like high global vaccination rates and stability to the global market, but little will be accomplished without global unity. There is no future health unity without recognizing the wealth and economic inequality that dominates the globalized world order. Although China and the U.S have their own domestic responses to Covid-19, which is primarily caused by an accumulation of government and citizenry influences, there is no denying that world inequality justified the widely disparate responses from around the world. Until higher powers address those disparities, the post-Covid future is far.
One of the major components of the global inequality around this pandemic is the equal access to resources, specifically adequate vaccines. There are many organizations and programs that are attempting to tackle this issue like, COVAX, a global distribution program sponsored by UNICEF, WHO, and more; however, it’s not just vaccines poorer nations need, it’s also the technology to store the vaccines at a low enough temperature, to have qualified people to distribute them safely, and to fund local research institutes that can produce the vaccines on their own. The world is moving in a positive direction with vaccine technology distribution – the WHO announced on February 18th that six African nations have applied and been chosen to receive vaccine technology from the global mRNA technology transfer hub. The hub was established in 2021 to put nations in the “driver’s seat” on the production of the vaccine. The success has already begun in South Africa, when the pharmaceutical company Afrigen announced that they had created an early development mRNA vaccine using the public information on Moderna.
China is also developing an mRNA vaccine for themselves, and hopefully the rest of the world. mRNA vaccines have proven to be the most effective for fighting high transmissible variants of Covid-19, like Omicron, instead of China's standard Sinovac vaccine, which follows a more traditional vaccine structure of introducing a dead virus to the immune system. The research production commenced in March of 2020, and the results of the first trial were published in January of 2022, with mixed results. Most people suffered short-term high fevers, and volunteers who received high doses experienced a weaker immune response. A larger trial, with an altered vaccine, is expected to begin in the upcoming months with (hopefully) successful data!
Although progress is meaningful, it’s also important to remember that only 14.8% of people in low-income countries have received one dose. Supplying these nations with Covid-19 support is imperative to reaching that safer, healthier state that the entire world desires. Ultimately, the world is not playing on the same field. The innovation support to low income countries should continue beyond healthcare and beyond the raging pandemic, so we can ultimately reach a more equal world.
Two of the world’s largest superpowers are experiencing the pandemic very differently. The U.S is opening back up more than ever, and China has never been more strictly shut down. This reality is an accumulation of several factors: strength of vaccines, government structure and power, the relationship between government and people, and cultural norms. However, one thing reigns true for all – none of us are completely safe from the virus, until all of us are safe. This sense of urgency towards others' suffering requires empathy, compassion, and a wider world view, which starts in educating oneself, and choosing to pay attention.